This earnings season likely will be the last of the earnings recession. After year-over-year declines in the first three quarters of 2020, the fourth quarter likely will make it four in a row. Looking ahead, earnings are likely to grow solidly in the first quarter 2021 and throughout the year, which we think will enable stocks to grow into their lofty valuations.
As a result of the Senate runoffs in Georgia, Democrats are poised to take control of the US Senate, which would give them a majority in both houses of Congress. This will shift the policy outlook moderately to the left, but majorities are still razor-thin, giving moderates heavy influence. We also envision a potential move toward increased bipartisanship, which may help bring more clarity to policy in 2021.
2020 was a year characterized in part by the outbreak of a global pandemic, which captivated the world and shocked the global economy and financial markets. As we turn the page to 2021, it can be helpful to reflect on the lessons learned from such a historic year. We offer 10 economic lessons we’ll remember from 2020.
After modest growth to begin 2020, the economy screeched to a halt as the onset of the pandemic ended the longest economic expansion ever. A record decline in gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter was followed by record GDP growth in the third quarter as the economy emerged from lockdowns. After such a tumultuous year in 2020, we take a look at what’s in store for the economy in 2021.
Santa Claus Rally
A Santa Claus rally describes a sustained increase in the stock market that occurs in the last week of December through the first two trading days in January.
Stocks and bonds posted strong returns in 2020 despite a tumultuous year, although that may be surprising only for bonds. We believe we’re in the early stages of a new bull market for stocks, but the opportunities for bond investors may require more patience. The investment landscape for both asset classes may offer new opportunities for investors in the new year.
To say that 2020 was a wild year would be an understatement. As we prepare to welcome in the New Year, we take a look at what we can expect in the stock and bond markets, the economy, and a new post-election policy environment in 2021.
A new wave of COVID-19 cases threatens to trip up the economy. Increasing cases in Europe and the United States have brought new restrictions on activities, but the market doesn’t appear to be fazed by the recent outbreaks. Progress on developing vaccines has provided a clear boost to sentiment, but prospects for a divided Congress and the potential for more fiscal policy support also may be playing a role.
The post-election environment and positive developments toward a COVID-19 vaccine have led to a surge in stock prices. The added clarity on these two fronts has boosted sentiment, which may present a risk in the near term as stock prices are near all-time highs.
Corporate America delivered quite an encore to a surprisingly good second quarter earnings season with more of the same in the third quarter, despite a higher bar. S&P 500 Index companies didn’t quite match the biggest upside surprise ever—but they came close. We’re optimistic about the earnings recovery in 2021 and beyond, and outline five key takeaways for investors.
Heading into the election, polling data and market signals disagreed on how close the presidential election would be, with market signals calling the race much closer—which turned out to be accurate. Now that we have more clarity on the results of the election, we can review what we believe will be some of the key market implications going forward.
2020 has been a year of records, both record losses and record gains. After a brutal spring, markets and the economy have mostly rebounded in the summer and fall. We take a closer look at October 26’s record gross domestic product (GDP) report, which may have implications for the upcoming presidential election.
The race for the White House is down to the homestretch, and although presidential candidate Joe Biden is comfortably ahead in the election polls, various market and economic-based indicators suggest the election may be much closer than many are expecting.
Markets have come a long way since the March lows, but we believe there may be more room for stocks to run. Given the impressive economic recovery to date and improving underlying technical and fundamental conditions, we think small cap stocks in particular may have attractive growth potential. Despite election and COVID-19-related risks, we see further gains ahead.
This earnings season, corporate America will get closer to the return of earnings growth—which is likely in the first quarter of 2021. We probably will have another decline in profits for third quarter 2020, though potentially only about half as big as last quarter’s. And we will undoubtedly hear more about uncertainty—both COVID-19 and election-related. We also highlight three things investors can watch this earnings season.
Speculation has been increasing that the November election results may be delayed or disputed, or both. A contested election might affect financial markets in several ways. Also, the news that President Donald Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 may potentially impact markets as well.
The recent correction in the S&P 500 Index’s technology sector presents a unique challenge to markets following a historic stretch of outperformance as technology’s share of the market has ballooned in size. Despite September weakness in this sector that has dragged the broader market lower, we expect technology leadership to continue given supportive underlying fundamental and technical conditions.
When seasons change, the major central banks meet. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan all met in September to discuss their outlooks on the economy and monetary policy going forward. Key observations from the central bank meetings include maintaining policy while keeping an eye on COVID-19.
As summer ends and fall begins to chill the air and paint the leaves, think about your financial well being. Are you financially prepared and protected for all seasons and stages of life? If not, give us a call. We can help you put your money to work... so you don't have to.
For National College Savings Month in September, we discuss several burning issues about these popular college savings vehicles.
Paul King, CFP®, Registered Principal, LPL Financial, CA Insurance #0761042
Shannon Corpuz, Registered Representative, LPL Financial
In the event of a natural disaster and King Wealth Planning cannot be reached, please contact LPL’s service center directly: 800.558.7567
This communication is strictly intended for individuals residing in the states of AL, AZ, CA, CO, CT, FL, GA, ID, MA, MD, MI, MN, NM, NC, NY, NV, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, TX, UT, VA, and WA. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident outside these states.
A IMPORTANT CONSUMER INFORMATION A broker/dealer(BD), investment adviser (IA), representative may only transact business in a state if first registered, or is excluded or exempt from state broker/dealer, investment adviser, BD agent, or IA registration requirements, as appropriate. Follow-up, individualized responses to persons in a state by such a firm or individual that involve either effecting or attempting to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, will not be made without first complying with appropriate registration requirements, or an applicable exemption or exclusion.
For information concerning the licensing status or disciplinary history of a BD, IA, BD agent, or IA rep, a consumer should contact his or her state securities law administrator.
Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC www.finra.org | www.sipc.com. Financial Planning offered through King Wealth Planning, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor and a separate entity.
