Weekly Market Commentary

3/22/21 The Second Year of the Bull Market Begins

The bear market ended one year ago this week, finishing one of the fastest and most vicious bear markets of all-time—one that led to a drawdown of 34%. Things have come full circle now, as stocks have staged a furious rally, with new highs happening across the globe as the economy recovers at a record pace. We take a look back at what happened last March, while also examining how previous bull markets did during the second year of their existence. 

Weekly Market Commentary

3/15/21 MARCH MADNESS: STOCK MARKET EDITION

With the NCAA college basketball tournament getting underway this week, LPL Research is getting in the spirit with its own version of March Madness. Here we share our “Final Four Factors” for the stock market in 2021: Vaccines, Policy, Profits, and Rates. While we see several strong competitors in this field, we believe the likely winner of this tournament is clear, and it will push stocks higher over the balance of the year.

Weekly Market Commentary

3/8/21 Rising Rates and Stock Market Performance

The 10-year Treasury yield continues to climb higher, but remains low by historical standards. Still, the size of the move since July 2020—and the more recent acceleration—has some market participants worried about the potential impact on stock markets if rates continue to rise. Historically, the S&P 500 Index has endured extended periods of rising rates well. If an improving growth outlook is part of what’s driving rates higher, it should also support corporate profits, creating a positive fundamental backdrop for stocks.

Weekly Market Commentary

Here Comes the Earnings Boom

Fourth-quarter earnings season is in the home stretch, and it’s been a good one. After raising our 2021 earnings forecast for the S&P 500 Index in our Weekly Market Commentary on February 8, our upgraded forecast may now be too low, based on what we have learned from corporate America during the three weeks since. In this commentary, we recap earnings season and share our latest thoughts on just how strong the earnings rebound could be in 2021 and beyond. 

Weekly Market Commentary

2/22/21 Sustainable Investing Year in Review

Increasingly more people realize that their sustainability concerns can be addressed through their investments. As more investors embark on the sustainable investing journey—learn what it is, why one pursues it, and how to do it—assets into sustainable funds will continue and investors will have more choices from which to construct sustainable investing portfolios.

Weekly Market Commentary

2/16/21 The Search for Income

Interest rates have risen steadily over the past six months but remain low by historical standards. That means the traditional high-quality bonds that many of us owned for decades are not doing the job for investors looking for income, while the potential for interest rates have risen steadily in recent months brings more risk in the bond market than has been evident historically. Here we look at some income ideas that may help with these challenges.

Weekly Market Commentary

2/8/21 Raising GDP and Stock Market Forecasts

The resilience of the US economy continues to exceed our expectations. With encouraging progress toward ending the pandemic, and massive fiscal stimulus in place—and more likely coming soon, our prior economic growth forecasts may prove overly conservative. In addition, we believe a strong fourth quarter earnings season supports an increase in our earnings forecasts for 2021 and, in turn, our fair value S&P 500 target.

Weekly Market Commentary

2/1/21 MARKETS SHRUG OFF DEBT LEVELS

The level of US debt, already elevated before COVID-19 hit, skyrocketed as Congress put into place much needed fiscal stimulus in response to the pandemic, and it may jump again as the Biden administration targets its stimulus goals. Markets have seemed unfazed by fiscal stimulus measures, and they’ll likely stay that way at least through 2021, but there will likely be economic consequences in the long term. 

Weekly Market Commentary

1/25/21 Small Caps Still Solid

Small caps have had an incredible run since the Russell 2000 Index bottomed on March 18, 2020, returning 119% compared to the S&P 500 Index’s 60% return over the period. Will small cap outperformance continue in 2021? The early stages of this business cycle may help determine the direction for small caps as well as earnings per share, stock valuations, and technical trends. 

Weekly Market Commentary

1/11/21 Market Policy Projections for 2021

As a result of the Senate runoffs in Georgia, Democrats are poised to take control of the US Senate, which would give them a majority in both houses of Congress. This will shift the policy outlook moderately to the left, but majorities are still razor-thin, giving moderates heavy influence. We also envision a potential move toward increased bipartisanship, which may help bring more clarity to policy in 2021.

Weekly Market Commentary

12/28/20 A New Economic Start in 2021

After modest growth to begin 2020, the economy screeched to a halt as the onset of the pandemic ended the longest economic expansion ever. A record decline in gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter was followed by record GDP growth in the third quarter as the economy emerged from lockdowns. After such a tumultuous year in 2020, we take a look at what’s in store for the economy in 2021.

Weekly Market Commentary

12/14/20 Stocks and Bonds Outlook for 2021

Stocks and bonds posted strong returns in 2020 despite a tumultuous year, although that may be surprising only for bonds. We believe we’re in the early stages of a new bull market for stocks, but the opportunities for bond investors may require more patience. The investment landscape for both asset classes may offer new opportunities for investors in the new year.

Weekly Market Commentary

COVID-19 May Threaten the Recovery

A new wave of COVID-19 cases threatens to trip up the economy. Increasing cases in Europe and the United States have brought new restrictions on activities, but the market doesn’t appear to be fazed by the recent outbreaks. Progress on developing vaccines has provided a clear boost to sentiment, but prospects for a divided Congress and the potential for more fiscal policy support also may be playing a role.

Weekly Market Commentary

Q3 Results Brighten 2021 Picture

Corporate America delivered quite an encore to a surprisingly good second quarter earnings season with more of the same in the third quarter, despite a higher bar. S&P 500 Index companies didn’t quite match the biggest upside surprise ever—but they came close. We’re optimistic about the earnings recovery in 2021 and beyond, and outline five key takeaways for investors.

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Paul King, CFP®, Registered Principal, LPL Financial, CA Insurance #0761042

Shannon Corpuz, Registered Representative, LPL Financial

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