12/27/21 HOW MUCH HIGHER CAN TREASURY YIELDS GO?
Lawrence Gillum, CFA, Fixed Income Strategist, LPL Financial
Ryan Detrick, CMT, Chief Market Strategist, LPL Financial
We expect interest rates to move modestly higher in 2022 based on near-term inflation expectations above historical trends and improving growth expectations once the impact of COVID-19 variants recede. Our year-end 2022 forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield is 1.75–2.00%. An aging global demographic that needs income, higher global debt levels, and an ongoing bull market in equities may keep interest rates from going much higher.