Weekly Market Commentary

11/21/22 PLAYBOOK FOR A FED PIVOT

Adam Turnquist, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist, LPL Financial
Marc Zabicki, CFA, Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial 

Recent inflation data has tempered expectations for future Federal Reserve tightening, including a potential peak in the terminal rate near 5.0% in May or June of 2023. While the market has welcomed this news, history suggests the path to a Fed pivot could be volatile for stocks due to elevated inflation and interest rate risk. In this week’s Weekly Market Commentary, we explore historical equity and fixed income market performance surrounding a Fed pivot, including the prospect for solid stock performance in the back half of 2023. 

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