Weekly Market Commentary

DECENT CHANCE STOCK MARKET BOTTOM IS IN BUT FAR FROM CERTAIN

Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist, LPL Financial
Adam Turnquist, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist, LPL Financial

Last week we were able to check several of the boxes on our stock market bottoming process checklist. Panic-level fear in investor surveys? Check. Volatility and volume spikes consistent with prior major market lows and capitulation? Check. Washed out levels of breadth? Check. Indiscriminate selling pressure followed by a massive up day when nearly every stock was higher? Check. Better tariff headlines? Yes, but…half check. The 90-day pause on the higher tariff rates helps, as do technology exemptions announced over the weekend, but massive tariff rates on China (now 145%? It’s hard to keep track) and the fact that we could be back in the same place in early July still with higher tariff rates is uncomfortable. And during big market drawdowns, retests of the initial lows are common. So, get your buy orders ready, but be open to the idea of more near-term downside.

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